Approximately one in five American adults have bet on sports in some way in the last twelve months. It makes sense that the numbers are up as more states legalize sports betting, allowing more and more adults access.
Sports betting has proven to be quite lucrative if you are lucky and know just what you are doing. Though, it’s not something you should do on a whim, even if you think you know a lot about sports. This could lead to the loss of quite a lot of money.
Instead, you must learn how to build sports betting models. This can give you various outcomes which can lead you to your next bet, perhaps more successfully.
If you are interested, keep reading our guide below to get started.
Determine Your Goal
When building your betting models, you need to have specific goals in mind. You’re trying to win money, but it needs to be more focused than that.
It is very difficult to create a successful sports betting strategy, even when you are willing to put in the hard work and long hours. For this reason, you must know exactly what you want to get out of it.
What sport are you focusing on? What advantages are you looking for? What is your tracking time for these specific models?
Betting on sports requires focus and extreme attention to detail, so get your goals in order before moving forward.
Use Statistics as Your Base
When you think of sports betting, you most likely think of statistics. This should be the base of all of your models, but don’t let it completely overpower you. Having too many statistics is also a bad thing.
Some models are all statistics, while others use it as a base and make adjustments later on based on outside information.
This is the time that you should be collecting as much information and data as possible, either by yourself or using tools online via various sportsbooks.
You have to pay attention, dive deep and keep records based on the principles you choose. Creating models will take a generous amount of time, but it will pay off in the end.
Choose an Underlying Principle
Once you’ve done enough research that you feel you have a grasp on the base of your model, it’s time to choose an underlying principle that will help grow the foundation.
This principle should be something you discover about the sport that has a small impact on the numbers. This is something that other betters may not notice, increasing its value.
This could be something as simple as a player not performing as well on certain days. If you notice it, and the trend continues to happen, you may be able to determine why and therefore predict it in the future.
While these trends are very rare and often not obvious, if you can spot something useful, it can significantly impact your model. This is where attention to detail becomes vital.
Build Multiple Types of Models
If you want to be successful in sports betting, you must create multiple types of betting models. You want to be able to test as many different statistics and situations at once so you can make more informed betting decisions.
You may start by running fifty to a hundred different models. The ones that don’t work, throw out. You should get down to about ten or twenty, which you should keep running consistently.
Your goal is to find a model that works. Then, you want to build an even better model, which can become your primary one. If this model stops working, your backups should be able to easily replace it.
If it looks like a model isn’t going to work, try adjusting a variable or two before throwing it out. Even if it looks like it’s going to work, always be diligent about what could change.
Consistently Test Your Models
If you have created a model that became profitable, it’s essential that you continue to test it. Testing betting models is required, always.
There is nothing saying that profitable models will stay profitable forever. Variables will inevitably change, even from day to day let alone from season to season.
If you are always testing your models and you are running multiple models at the same time, you should have no problem adjusting it when it inevitably stops working.
Adjust According to Outside Information
As stated before, using statistics to build your models is essential and it’s wise. But, you should also adjust some of your models based on outside information.
For example, as you prepare to watch football games, consider all of the data you collected for your models. Look strictly at the statistics.
Then, as you watch, factor in the weather, any injuries that occur, and any other NFL predictions this week that you may have heard. Adjust the variables on your models if you think you should, based on this information.
This will be up to your eyes and gut. Refer back to your underlying principle and see if it fits.
It’s important to be able to adjust your models in real-time when it is required.
Your Guide on How to Build Sports Betting Models
Sports betting is so popular because it can often work, but not without a significant amount of labor involved. To build sports betting models that are successful, you must hunker down and do the research.
Chances are, if you are interested in sports betting, you are already interested in sports, too. This is essential. A healthy obsession is required, so be prepared to make sports your life.
If you would like to take a mini-break from all the sports talk, browse our website for some lifestyle content.